Saturday, February 15, 2014

The worst errors Holland housing policy Transactions jellies, prices still high, buildings falling

The worst errors Holland housing policy | Slate
The worst errors Holland housing policy Transactions jellies, prices still high, buildings falling 9%: this is the abysmal policy led by Cécile Duflot.
The more a caricature, but also the most serious errors of the government's economic policy is undoubtedly the housing policy. We found all the features, but magnified: the false ideological diagnostic, technical incompetence and fiscal and regulatory zigzags. Nowhere distrust of professionals is not so great. The real estate market is blocked, the construction also. Cécile Duflot, the Minister has ESSEC, she will be considered as "a case" absolute failure. videgrenier
France suffers from a serious shortage of housing, estimated to be around 800,000. videgrenier In defense of the current government, it goes way back, the government never managed videgrenier to heal despite amounts of aid measures of all kinds since the last war. The cumulative state interventionism in the game between household videgrenier demand and supply videgrenier (construction) has the result that France is the country that spends the most money of public housing but has the worst results: persistent shortages and high prices.
The results of Cécile Duflot is final. The buildings are falling by 9% year on year. Only 340,000 units emerge from the ground this year, Francois Hollande promised 500,000 per year. The fall of 16% for houses. videgrenier Among developers, bookings were down 7.5%. They pack up their projects, applications for building permits have atrophied 23% (Third quarter revenue). Bankruptcies are increasing: 20,000, according to Coface. Construction represents a third of all business failures across all sectors. Much more than its weight in GDP.
Market sale of the former is also stopped, but this does not prevent prices to continue, with an erosion of only 1% to 1.5% per year in the region, videgrenier and even to resume up to Paris, where the shortage is most severe. When demand collapses, normally on a well-functioning videgrenier market, prices follow, in France, no, as our country is, according to the OECD, the country where real estate is the most "overvalued" relative household income. Transactions are frozen, but the prices do not move: buyers as sellers, everyone loses, missed videgrenier on both counts. Hat! This means we miss easy recovery
The consequences of this failure are very serious. France is the only country where the building is not used to initiate videgrenier or consolidate recovery. In Britain, videgrenier growth will accelerate significantly, around 2.7% in 2014, thanks in particular to the good performance of the housing market (new construction up 20%). In the United States, ditto: housing sales grew 21% year on year, construction spending is at its highest since 2009.
In France, construction should have been a very easy way to recovery. The government loupe there by his own fault, about half a percentage point of growth if it waits impatiently. He had yet to hand, everything to succeed: the willingness of French videgrenier acquire their homes, savings galore, builders. Only land areas are lacking, because they are blocked by Malthusian mechanisms and behaviors, but they are known, simply sauté for construction go back. The building also has two great advantages: it creates a lot of jobs and it uses few imports. So it does not dig the trade deficit.
But the error is Cécile Duflot, from the outset, that of the diagnosis. If the economy is so bad, think briefly videgrenier the majority of the Socialist Party and environmentalists, it is because of greed fierce capitalists. It should "tax the rich." In housing, this translates into the fight against greed owners. Must punish, coerce, to the advantage of nice tenants. And the government to return to the bureaucratic control of rent increases. Like, though, videgrenier is blown to the minister that investors may forego building, just to cheer them up to reduce taxation or public offer "guarantees" against unpaid. The margin of the capitalist owner is terminal, but we compensate by state aid: this is the epitome of statist policy. An "overhaul" is needed
François Hollande, informed by Louis Gallois, understood that France suffered the opposite of what the left thought: a shortage of supply. First in May and that not he applies videgrenier this new policy

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